The Perfect Storm - Investing & Profiting From the Real Estate Market Collapse in Phoenix, Arizona

What Causes A Perfect Storm?you certainly can, but there are 2 reasons why now is
Well that's the million dollar question, isn't it?the ideal time to get involved.
What I deem a perfect storm is a set of(1) Abundance of properties (supply) - with so many
circumstances that occur once, maybe twice in adistressed properties out there of all kinds, you now
lifetime that offers unparalleled opportunity to purchasehave your pick of what to purchase and can be more
undervalued real estate at unnaturally depressedaggressive on price. As the market shifts more
prices. There was one similar opportunity in the latetowards demand with more buyers chasing good
1980s, early 1990s when the RTC (Resolution Trustdeals, the number of opportunities will certainly diminish,
Corporation - a government-run entity used to liquidateit will be more difficult to find really good deals and
primarily foreclosed commercial assets) had one ofthere will be more competition to buy them.
the biggest fire-sales of commercial real estate in US(2) Positive Cash flow - prices are so low right now,
history. This was a time that fortunes were made inthat it is relatively easy to find residential properties that
the acquisition of overly distressed real estate assets.will produce a positive cash flow. Basically this means
At that time, the market collapse was caused by 3that the rental income should cover all the expenses
main factors (1) change in US tax laws affecting realand mortgage costs leaving you with money at the
estate investors, (2) Overbuilding, (3) The Savingsend of the day. This will be explained in greater detail
& Loan banking scandal and fraudulent activity ofbelow.
mortgage lenders and appraisers.Why Residential Property?
So what's causing the Perfect Storm Today?Normally, I don't recommend purchasing individual single
(1) Massive residential property speculation infamily homes because they are harder to manage
2003-2006effectively and usually don't cash flow. The major
(2) Too much credit available to purchase and financebenefits that they have over other forms of real
real estate which was overused by lenders andestate you could invest in are:
uncreditworthy borrowers(1) Liquidity - Simply stated, there are more buyers for
(3) The current overall US market decline/recessionthis form of real estate than any other. It is therefore
that is spreading into a global crisiseasier to sell when needed for the greatest value.
(4) Current lack of funds for qualified borrowers(2) Appreciation Potential - for the smaller investor, it
(5) Current oversupply of properties for salegives you the greatest potential for appreciation if
As you can see, there are 2 stages that follow onepurchased at the right time because there is such a
after another that lead to the creation of a Perfectbroad market of buyers for housing
Storm and opportunity to purchase real estate at(3) Lower mortgage rates than commercial property
incredible values - The Housing Speculation or Run-Upinvestments, typically
phase and the Market Collapse. We will examine each(4) Values may have fallen 30-60%, but rents have
of these phases so you are more informed on whatnot really fallen much at all.
has led us to this perfect point in time to invest in realIn our current market, one of the major faults of
estate.residential property has been eliminated. It is now
But first, we need to examine the most important issueeasier than it has been in decades to buy residential
a real estate investor must evaluate when choosingproperty in Metro Phoenix at a positive cash flow.
where and when to purchase a real estate investmentHow Do I Buy Property?
- LOCATION.I will begin this section by stating that these are my
Underlying Market Strengththoughts and suggestions when evaluating property for
I'm sure you've heard the age-old adage, "location,purchase based on my experience and common
location, location". I have a different spin on this saying.sense. These are guidelines that you may choose to
Mine goes more like, "location, timing, cash-flow".follow at your own discretion. I cannot guarantee
Nevertheless, location is still number one on the list. Ifresults or success for any investment. It is up to you to
the underlying market is not strong with potential forproperly evaluate investment opportunities and make
rental and value increases in the future, then what's thedecisions in line with your goals and risk tolerance.
point of investing in the first place?Picking the location
First, let's look at Metropolitan Phoenix as a whole forHere are important elements in selecting the area to
location. Why the heck would you want to buypurchase an investment property
property in the middle of the desert?(1) Safe area
Even though our market is severely depressed right(2) Close to highway access
now, Phoenix has shown remarkable resiliency and(3) Within 30 minutes drive time of major employment
long term value appreciation for a number of reasons:centers
(1) Climate - People want to live here because of the(4) Proximity to shopping and other amenities
warm, sunny weather. It is why snow-birds come in(5) Proximity to schools
flocks for the winter and to retire. We all know that(6) Strong rental market - I mean with a track record
the baby boomers are reaching retirement age.of other properties being rented for rates which you
(2) Affordability - Phoenix is one of the mostcan use to evaluate the viability of the property as an
affordable places to live in the US. While this statisticinvestment
took a temporary hit during the last boom, we havePicking the type of property
fallen back down to being extremely attractive toThese criteria are designed to reduce your liability and
business based on real estate values, labor pool andinvestment risk and maximize your upside potential.
overall cost of living. This will continue to attractSize criteria is meant to keep the property in the range
business, labor and retirees to the area for the longof properties that are easiest to lease, rent for the
term.highest value per square foot and are also easiest to
(3) Standard of Living - very high. Ease of commuting,sell down the road since they conform to the largest
and a fresh young, vibrant city leads people to want tomarket segment of potential buyers.
live here.For Single Family Homes
These factors have led to the remarkable positive(1) 3-4 bedrooms, 2+ baths
population growth Metro Phoenix has experience for(2) 1,200 - 2,000 square feet with 2 car garage
the past 50 years. Even during times of economic(3) Newer homes are better. Try and stay with 1995
hardship, people still continue to move here at aand newer
remarkable pace. This puts pressure on the housing(4) NO pool/spa in backyard (too much liability and
market and inevitably leads to appreciation.maintenance
After deciding that Phoenix is the right spot to invest in(5) Low or No maintenance landscaping is preferable
real estate, your next task it to pick a sub-marketFor Condos
within the metro region that makes the most(1) Minimum 2 bedrooms 1.5 baths
investment sense. Some of the most important(2) Decent amenities in complex (pool, spa, clubhouse)
factors include:(3) Stick with larger communities with 100+ units. If
(1) Area of greatest price declinesyou're looking at a smaller complex, make sure to
(2) Proximity to employmentverify the viability of the HOA and fees
(3) Proximity to amenitiesThe benefit to condos is less overall maintenance
(4) Quality of arearequired - particularly on the exterior and to the
(5) Strength of rental market/valuescommunity grounds. The downside is that they may
These will be discussed later in this report and aappreciate at a slower pace than single family
qualified real estate professional can assist you inresidential.
selecting sub-markets to invest in that match theseEvaluating the numbers
criteria.Even in the best worst market that we have to
The Residential Housing Value Run-upaccumulate wealth through real estate, you need to be
Phoenix real estate has always appreciated at acareful. There are as many, if not more bad deals out
steady pace with the exception of a few massivethere as good deals. Properly evaluating a property will
run-ups in value followed by sharp declines. The declinemake all the difference between a success
of the late 1980s was briefly reviewed above. Soinvestment and an underperforming one.
what has caused the latest mass-speculation andBefore getting to number analysis, let's not forget
run-up in values between 2003 and 2006?evaluating the CONDITON of the property. We always
Well there were a few culprits that acted together torecommend that you obtain a HOME INSPECTION on
create this latest debacle.every home you plan to purchase to help insure that
(1) Underlying Market Strength - As stated above,you are buying what you think you are buying.
Metro Phoenix has inherent underlying market strength.Initial Analysis
That is what got the ball rolling and led to the massBefore placing an offer on a property, you want to
speculation for 3+ years.perform an initial analysis to see if the property will
(2) Cheap Credit - Interest rates came down togenerate a positive cash flow. In order to do this, you
unheard of levels making it easier to buy more assetsshould have already been prequalified by a lender so
with less money.that you know what down payment requirements you
(3) Overabundance of Credit - It started in the latewill have and what your finance costs will be. Once
1990s when Bill Clinton passed legislation freeing upyou know what those cost are, you are ready to
credit to allow more people to buy homes - theevaluate the income and expenses.
sub-prime mortgage market was created. People thatEvaluating the INCOME is fairly straightforward. You
really shouldn't have been buying homes in the firstwill want to compare the going rental rates in the area
place were not only buying homes, but purchasingfor similar sized homes in fair to good condition and
larger properties than they could afford. As credituse a figure in the bottom ½ of the going rental
loosened and values started to increase, a run onrates to be conservative.
equity lines of credit and refinancing freed up theAnalyzing EXPENSES is a bit trickier. There are a few
equity in people's homes and allowed them to spenditems that you will need in order to verify costs and
'invisible' equity in the consumer markets on durablecome up with a total expense amount. These may be
goods and services. This created the economic boombroken down into the following:
that we all experienced in the early to mid-2000s. TheRecurring Expenses
result: even homeowners that bought early in theProperty management - Figure 8-10% of the gross
boom and saw their property values increase 50-100%rent will be paid as management fees on single family
over a 5-6 year period had little to no equity left in theirhomes. The more properties you have under
homes by the end of this appreciation cycle as theymanagement, the better the fee you may be able to
leached it all out through equity lines of credit and othernegotiate with a management company.
borrowing methods.Insurance - You will need to have enough insurance to
(4) Investor Stupidity - As values went up and loanscover the home and liability to cover accidents, having
became easier to attain, investors started buyingtenants in the premises. Make sure you have
property with no money down and buying as manyadequate coverage
properties as they could get loans for (see next pointTaxes
below). It became an exercise in buy high and hope toHOA Fees - Many single Family Homes in Phoenix
sell higher.belong to a homeowner association where fees are
It got to the point that, in 2005, there were actuallycollected periodically for community maintenance.
busloads of investors that were driving around in townPlease make sure to
stopping in new housing subdivisions and lining up toUtilities - usually paid for by the tenant on single family
buy new homes. Why did they concentrate on newresidences, so you don't have to worry about this.
homes? Because they could purchase a home to beCheck with you property manager for what is typical
built in the future, put little money down to secure it andin their area
watch the value of their property increase for 6-12Legal/Accounting - many investors forget this one.
months without even owning it yet! Then they wouldRemember that you own and investment and need to
either flip it right away when it was completed or holdmake appropriate plans to minimize your liability and
it in hopes of it appreciating even more.tax exposure. Please talk to legal and tax specialists
Builders were turning away buyers, holding lotteries andfor more information. The more property you own, the
using other methods to hold back the swarm becauseless this items costs per property since you can
they couldn't build homes fast enough, even as theyspread the cost over all your investments.
continued to raise prices on a monthly - sometimesMaintenance Costs - you may have to pay someone
even weekly basis! As a result, new homes wereto maintain the exterior of the home One of the main
overbuilt in 2004, 2005 and 2006 by a wide margin duereasons to buy a home with no pool/spa and
to 'fake' demand since many of the buyers werelow-maintenance desert-style landscaping. Once a
investors with no intention of ever living in the home!tenant is in, they are typically responsible for maintaining
This flawed philosophy worked for 2+ years at whichthese areas.
time the greatest fool theory became a reality. YouVACANCY FACTOR - You will not always have a
know how it works...As you build a pyramid of fools,tenant in the property. You need to make allowance
there are less and less greater fools as you workfor time between tenants. If you price your rent
your way to the top. When you finally reach theaggressively for the market, 1 month per year as
summit the greatest fool at the top looks around andvacancy should be more than adequate.
sees no-one dumber than himself to buy his propertyOne-Time Costs
for more money and so, the whole structure comesThese are costs you will incur in purchasing the
crashing to the ground. It took a while for owners ofproperty. You may bundle this into the total investment
property who were trying to sell to realize that pricescost along with the down payment you intend to use.
were in decline, not going up in mid 2006 whichThey will include:
resulted in a massive number of listings coming on theEscrow fees and other closings costs
market with few takers. This is further explainedHome Inspection
below under 'The Market Collapse'.Termite Inspection
(5) Lender & Investor Fraud - As the run-up inOther Inspection Fees (if applicable
values was occurring, lenders and investors started toFinance Charges (for the loan)
get greedy. Lenders began offering programs thatYou will be able to prepare an estimate for all these
made little or no sense for some homebuyers to getcosts prior to putting in an offer on a property.
them into a home. Many times, putting a buyer into aTypically, you will have 10+ days after offer
home larger than they knew their client could affordacceptance to run all inspections and tighten up all your
with programs that their clients did not fully understand.figures to make sure your estimates were accurate. If
Credit was so loose and readily available during thisyou find something wrong with the home during this
time that many investors and homebuyers weretime, you will usually have the ability to cancel the
fraudulently misreporting their income too high oncontract and get back your earnest money. Speak
'stated income', 'no-doc' loans and lenders were turningwith your Real Estate Professional for more
the other cheek and underwriting the loans with noinformation about the procedure of placing an offer on
clear proof of the borrower's ability to repay.a property
The Market CollapseEmergency Fund
So why did the proverbial %#$ hit the fan? Greed andIt's important to always have some extra money put
loose credit were the culprits and it culminated whenon the side to cover emergency expenses, a tenant
investors and homebuyers ran out of money tothat skips out or is delinquent on payments, repairs
purchase and overall economy began to slow downcosts, etc. Always be prepared for the unexpected.
as people started running out of capital and credit. AsSample Analysis
the real estate market began to slow down, propertyLet's work through an example so you may see how
sellers remained steadfast in their belief that their homea typical investment might look on a single family home:
was worth more money than the current market valueOur sample property is a single family home with 3
as it had been in months past. But it wasn't.bedrooms, 2 baths and 1,400 square feet for $100,000.
From there, the first phase of the market collapseWe will assume that you will need to put 30% down to
occurred. Overpriced properties for sale with nopurchase this home. A home like this is fairly typical in
buyers. Property owners unrealistically priced theirtoday's market and might have sold for $180,000 -
homes for sale too high and buyers began to pull off$200,000+ 3 years ago.
to the sidelines as they were unwilling to pay theTotal Purchase Price $100,000
exorbitant prices for homes. Listings began to pile upDown payment (@30%) $30,000
and very few sales were occurring. Some ownersLoan Amount $70,000
started to realize what was happening and droppedClosing Costs
the price of their home to help it sell. As the marketDown payment $30,000
leveled off and began to slowly correct, phase twoEscrow Fees $1,000
began.....Finance Charges $1,500
Investors that were counting on property appreciationHome Inspection $400
soon realized that the end had occurred. They beganTermite Inspection $100
putting property up for sale en mass further strainingTotal Closing Costs $33,000
the supply side of the market. Because all theseIncome
investors were buying property based solely onMonthly Rent $950
appreciation and NOT cash flow, they soon realizedLess Vacancy Factor (1 month) $950
that they would be unable to hang onto their propertyAnnual Income $10,450
if they didn't sell them. Some tried to rent, but becauseAnnual Expenses (est.)
they had paid so much for the homes, the propertiesTaxes $800
were unable to cover the expenses. Some investorsInsurance $400
and homeowners hung on for longer than others, butProperty Management (@9%) $940
almost all of them eventually gave in to the realities ofHOA fees ($50/month) $600
declining property values.Maintenance/Repairs/Cleaning $450
This was further compounded by the variety ofLegal/Accounting $250
'flexible' mortgages that were available to homebuyersTotal Annual Expenses $3,440
and investors including shorter term, loans at lowerNET OPERATING INCOME $7,010
interest rates. Investors planned on short hold times soAnnual Mortgage Payments (@ 7.5%) $5,874
naturally obtained lower interest loans with shorterPositive Cash Flow $1,136
terms as they planned to sell within 1-2 years. As theReturn On Initial Investment (ROI) 3.4%return excludes
market declined and those property owners could notappreciation
sell, these loans became due and because propertyCondition Of Property
values were declining, they could not get new loans toThere are 3 different types of properties you can look
cover the value of the old loans. Many more propertyat purchasing as an investment as it relates to
owners walked away for this reason and it continuescondition.
today.Option A - Property In Good Condition & Ready
As the loans go into default due to non-payment, theTo Rent
owner is left with 2 ways out - short sale or walkOption B - Property in fair condition but requiring
away. Many went the route of short sale to minimizecosmetic repair to make rentable. This is a property
the affect on their credit rating and those who couldthat might be bank-owned or otherwise vacant for a
not or would not go that route eventually walkedwhile. May have been heavily used or poorly
away from their property and let the bank take themaintained by the previous owner. Work required is
property back.more cosmetic in nature and easy to estimate. Things
I have another article posted on this site detailing thelike carpet cleaning or replacement, new appliances,
Pros and Cons to purchasing Short Sales andrepainting, cleaning, landscape repair, drywall touch-up
Bank-owned Properties in Phoenix.Option C - Property in poor condition, requiring major
The market was soon flooded with distressedrepair and/or replacement. I only recommend this
properties of all kinds. This forced home values downoption for seasoned, experienced investors that have
further and faster as distressed properties are typicallya background in home construction, repair and cost
aggressively priced at least 5-10% less than currentanalysis. While you may be able to purchase property
market value. This cycle has continued to force valueswell below current market values and create instant
down for months to the point where most submarketsequity by fixing them up, you can also lose your shirt if
in Metro Phoenix have fallen 25-50% in the past 2you don't know what you are doing.
years. Some properties have fallen over 60% fromIf you are a beginner real estate investor, I suggest
their highs 2 years ago.you stick with option A until you get your feet wet and
This has led to further problems in our region. Due toa little more experience with repair and replacement
the extent of the downturn and the sheer number ofcosts.
vacant, distressed properties, Many properties areBe Pragmatic
being vandalized by outgoing owners and theft isRemember, it's an investment. Be a Vulcan. Don't
become much more widespread of vacant properties.exhibit emotions when dealing with buying a property
This is further compounding the downturn asor renting it to a tenant. The numbers have to make
properties in poor condition are even harder to sell andsense and the upside must be there. NEVER FALL IN
must be discounted that much more in order to find aLOVE WITH A HOME YOU'RE BUYING AS AN
willing purchaser.INVESTMENT. You will not be living in it. Think of it
When Will The Housing Market Hit Bottom?strictly as an income producing asset like a stock or
Good question. Here's the answer.....bond. Make sure tenants are properly screened and
I have no clue. In fact, no-one does. But that's' not thequalified.
most important thing. There is no way to know forProperty Management
certain when the absolute bottom is reached. All youIt is important to have quality local management to
can do is invest wisely NEAR the bottom. Purchaseoversee your investment. Yes, it cost more money to
properties that produce positive cash flow (will bepay them, but they help maintain the value of your
explained later), and wait to ride the wave back up.asset and save you from those calls at 3 am about a
Why Now?plumbing leak. Factor them into the numbers when
There are several critical elements in evaluating theevaluating an investment and don't buy anything that
state of the residential real estate market and itsdoesn't positive cash flow without management.
proximity to turning the corner. Many of these criteriaWhy Not Commercial?
are now pointing to real estate values bottoming out.Commercial real estate like apartments, office, retail
Here are some of the statistics I have been watchingand industrial make excellent investments - if
carefully which lead me to believe we are findingpurchased at the right time. The consensus among
resistance that is creating a market bottom.leading real estate investment professionals is that this
(1) Housing affordability has shot through the roofsegment of the market has not bottomed out and
(2) Residential Resales are on the riselikely will not for a while. The time to pick up distressed
(3) Homebuilding is at a 25 year lowreal estate investments in these asset categories may
(4) Applications for new mortgages are on the riseyet be 3-4 quarters away (from 4th quarter 2008).
The biggest concerns that still remain are:Why? Because as the economy fails and the
(1) The overall economy is weak and likely to getrecession heads into full swing, many business
worse before it gets bettereventually fail. This drives up vacancy rates and
(2) Credit is harder to obtain and larger downreduces asset performance while at the same time,
payments are now the norm when buying real estatereducing rental values as more space competes for
making it less available for more peoplelimited tenants. Investors start demanding higher rates
(3) Still too many foreclosures and short sales comingof return and factor in higher vacancy rates into their
on the market from the frenzy of a few years ago.calculations of asset value driving the prices of
Affordable Housing Is Back!property down. It usually takes some time for property
One of the best indicators on how attractive a specificowners to catch on to this market trend and reduce
real estate market is for homeownership is thetheir asking prices to falling market values which
affordability index. This is a measure of howfurther puts strain on values. This is the same scenario
affordable homes in a particular area are relative tothat has happened in the residential property arena in
wages and incomes. A number of 65-70 showsmid-to-late 2006 and into 2007. I suspect that there will
considerable value and favorable affordability for abe many commercial properties that enter default and
large percentage of the population. As you can see,revert back to the lenders creating opportunities for
one of the driving forces of Metro Phoenix growth hasseasoned investors to purchase commercial real
always been housing affordability. In the speculationestate assets for very attractive values - but the time
frenzy in the mid-2000s, that affordability plummeted tohas not yet arrived. Patience is warranted in this area.
numbers never seen before. As prices have fallen, youCopyright Notice
can see the affordability coming back to the pointAll rights reserved. No part of this publication may be
where now, we are above our historical average.reproduced or transmitted in whole or in part, in any
*graph not available on this site*form or by any means electronic or mechanical. Any
Residential Resales are Picking up Steam!unauthorized use, reproduction or distribution is strictly
As you can see from the following chart (unavailableprohibited.
on this site), sales activity is on the rise, although overLegal Notice
40% of the sales are currently lender-ownedWhile attempts have been made to verify information
properties. This shows that we are starting to hit aprovided in this publication, neither the author nor the
resistance at the bottom as people are starting topublisher assumes any responsibilities for errors,
grab the deals at the bottom of the market. If thisomissions, or contradictory information contained in this
trend continues, it could signal the slow-down in pricedocument.
declines and near-term stabilization of our homeThis document is not intended as legal, investment or
values.tax advice. The reader of this document assumes all
For these reasons, while I believe we are near theresponsibility for the use of these materials and
bottom, I think it will be a few years before we see ainformation and is urged to do their own investigation
marked improvement in our area where values beginprior to purchasing and/or investing in real estate of
to rise again. Will it happen? Absolutely! As I haveany kind. Celestial Homes Ltd, Prudential Arizona
attempted to explain above, the overall Metro PhoenixProperties and the author assumes no responsibility or
Market is very strong for numerous reasons and isliability whatsoever on behalf of any reader of these
poised to be a major growth region again - and notmaterials.
too long into the future, either.© 2008 Celestial Homes Ltd.
So why not wait until things start turning around? Well,