| What Causes A Perfect Storm? | | | | you certainly can, but there are 2 reasons why now is |
| Well that's the million dollar question, isn't it? | | | | the ideal time to get involved. |
| What I deem a perfect storm is a set of | | | | (1) Abundance of properties (supply) - with so many |
| circumstances that occur once, maybe twice in a | | | | distressed properties out there of all kinds, you now |
| lifetime that offers unparalleled opportunity to purchase | | | | have your pick of what to purchase and can be more |
| undervalued real estate at unnaturally depressed | | | | aggressive on price. As the market shifts more |
| prices. There was one similar opportunity in the late | | | | towards demand with more buyers chasing good |
| 1980s, early 1990s when the RTC (Resolution Trust | | | | deals, the number of opportunities will certainly diminish, |
| Corporation - a government-run entity used to liquidate | | | | it will be more difficult to find really good deals and |
| primarily foreclosed commercial assets) had one of | | | | there will be more competition to buy them. |
| the biggest fire-sales of commercial real estate in US | | | | (2) Positive Cash flow - prices are so low right now, |
| history. This was a time that fortunes were made in | | | | that it is relatively easy to find residential properties that |
| the acquisition of overly distressed real estate assets. | | | | will produce a positive cash flow. Basically this means |
| At that time, the market collapse was caused by 3 | | | | that the rental income should cover all the expenses |
| main factors (1) change in US tax laws affecting real | | | | and mortgage costs leaving you with money at the |
| estate investors, (2) Overbuilding, (3) The Savings | | | | end of the day. This will be explained in greater detail |
| & Loan banking scandal and fraudulent activity of | | | | below. |
| mortgage lenders and appraisers. | | | | Why Residential Property? |
| So what's causing the Perfect Storm Today? | | | | Normally, I don't recommend purchasing individual single |
| (1) Massive residential property speculation in | | | | family homes because they are harder to manage |
| 2003-2006 | | | | effectively and usually don't cash flow. The major |
| (2) Too much credit available to purchase and finance | | | | benefits that they have over other forms of real |
| real estate which was overused by lenders and | | | | estate you could invest in are: |
| uncreditworthy borrowers | | | | (1) Liquidity - Simply stated, there are more buyers for |
| (3) The current overall US market decline/recession | | | | this form of real estate than any other. It is therefore |
| that is spreading into a global crisis | | | | easier to sell when needed for the greatest value. |
| (4) Current lack of funds for qualified borrowers | | | | (2) Appreciation Potential - for the smaller investor, it |
| (5) Current oversupply of properties for sale | | | | gives you the greatest potential for appreciation if |
| As you can see, there are 2 stages that follow one | | | | purchased at the right time because there is such a |
| after another that lead to the creation of a Perfect | | | | broad market of buyers for housing |
| Storm and opportunity to purchase real estate at | | | | (3) Lower mortgage rates than commercial property |
| incredible values - The Housing Speculation or Run-Up | | | | investments, typically |
| phase and the Market Collapse. We will examine each | | | | (4) Values may have fallen 30-60%, but rents have |
| of these phases so you are more informed on what | | | | not really fallen much at all. |
| has led us to this perfect point in time to invest in real | | | | In our current market, one of the major faults of |
| estate. | | | | residential property has been eliminated. It is now |
| But first, we need to examine the most important issue | | | | easier than it has been in decades to buy residential |
| a real estate investor must evaluate when choosing | | | | property in Metro Phoenix at a positive cash flow. |
| where and when to purchase a real estate investment | | | | How Do I Buy Property? |
| - LOCATION. | | | | I will begin this section by stating that these are my |
| Underlying Market Strength | | | | thoughts and suggestions when evaluating property for |
| I'm sure you've heard the age-old adage, "location, | | | | purchase based on my experience and common |
| location, location". I have a different spin on this saying. | | | | sense. These are guidelines that you may choose to |
| Mine goes more like, "location, timing, cash-flow". | | | | follow at your own discretion. I cannot guarantee |
| Nevertheless, location is still number one on the list. If | | | | results or success for any investment. It is up to you to |
| the underlying market is not strong with potential for | | | | properly evaluate investment opportunities and make |
| rental and value increases in the future, then what's the | | | | decisions in line with your goals and risk tolerance. |
| point of investing in the first place? | | | | Picking the location |
| First, let's look at Metropolitan Phoenix as a whole for | | | | Here are important elements in selecting the area to |
| location. Why the heck would you want to buy | | | | purchase an investment property |
| property in the middle of the desert? | | | | (1) Safe area |
| Even though our market is severely depressed right | | | | (2) Close to highway access |
| now, Phoenix has shown remarkable resiliency and | | | | (3) Within 30 minutes drive time of major employment |
| long term value appreciation for a number of reasons: | | | | centers |
| (1) Climate - People want to live here because of the | | | | (4) Proximity to shopping and other amenities |
| warm, sunny weather. It is why snow-birds come in | | | | (5) Proximity to schools |
| flocks for the winter and to retire. We all know that | | | | (6) Strong rental market - I mean with a track record |
| the baby boomers are reaching retirement age. | | | | of other properties being rented for rates which you |
| (2) Affordability - Phoenix is one of the most | | | | can use to evaluate the viability of the property as an |
| affordable places to live in the US. While this statistic | | | | investment |
| took a temporary hit during the last boom, we have | | | | Picking the type of property |
| fallen back down to being extremely attractive to | | | | These criteria are designed to reduce your liability and |
| business based on real estate values, labor pool and | | | | investment risk and maximize your upside potential. |
| overall cost of living. This will continue to attract | | | | Size criteria is meant to keep the property in the range |
| business, labor and retirees to the area for the long | | | | of properties that are easiest to lease, rent for the |
| term. | | | | highest value per square foot and are also easiest to |
| (3) Standard of Living - very high. Ease of commuting, | | | | sell down the road since they conform to the largest |
| and a fresh young, vibrant city leads people to want to | | | | market segment of potential buyers. |
| live here. | | | | For Single Family Homes |
| These factors have led to the remarkable positive | | | | (1) 3-4 bedrooms, 2+ baths |
| population growth Metro Phoenix has experience for | | | | (2) 1,200 - 2,000 square feet with 2 car garage |
| the past 50 years. Even during times of economic | | | | (3) Newer homes are better. Try and stay with 1995 |
| hardship, people still continue to move here at a | | | | and newer |
| remarkable pace. This puts pressure on the housing | | | | (4) NO pool/spa in backyard (too much liability and |
| market and inevitably leads to appreciation. | | | | maintenance |
| After deciding that Phoenix is the right spot to invest in | | | | (5) Low or No maintenance landscaping is preferable |
| real estate, your next task it to pick a sub-market | | | | For Condos |
| within the metro region that makes the most | | | | (1) Minimum 2 bedrooms 1.5 baths |
| investment sense. Some of the most important | | | | (2) Decent amenities in complex (pool, spa, clubhouse) |
| factors include: | | | | (3) Stick with larger communities with 100+ units. If |
| (1) Area of greatest price declines | | | | you're looking at a smaller complex, make sure to |
| (2) Proximity to employment | | | | verify the viability of the HOA and fees |
| (3) Proximity to amenities | | | | The benefit to condos is less overall maintenance |
| (4) Quality of area | | | | required - particularly on the exterior and to the |
| (5) Strength of rental market/values | | | | community grounds. The downside is that they may |
| These will be discussed later in this report and a | | | | appreciate at a slower pace than single family |
| qualified real estate professional can assist you in | | | | residential. |
| selecting sub-markets to invest in that match these | | | | Evaluating the numbers |
| criteria. | | | | Even in the best worst market that we have to |
| The Residential Housing Value Run-up | | | | accumulate wealth through real estate, you need to be |
| Phoenix real estate has always appreciated at a | | | | careful. There are as many, if not more bad deals out |
| steady pace with the exception of a few massive | | | | there as good deals. Properly evaluating a property will |
| run-ups in value followed by sharp declines. The decline | | | | make all the difference between a success |
| of the late 1980s was briefly reviewed above. So | | | | investment and an underperforming one. |
| what has caused the latest mass-speculation and | | | | Before getting to number analysis, let's not forget |
| run-up in values between 2003 and 2006? | | | | evaluating the CONDITON of the property. We always |
| Well there were a few culprits that acted together to | | | | recommend that you obtain a HOME INSPECTION on |
| create this latest debacle. | | | | every home you plan to purchase to help insure that |
| (1) Underlying Market Strength - As stated above, | | | | you are buying what you think you are buying. |
| Metro Phoenix has inherent underlying market strength. | | | | Initial Analysis |
| That is what got the ball rolling and led to the mass | | | | Before placing an offer on a property, you want to |
| speculation for 3+ years. | | | | perform an initial analysis to see if the property will |
| (2) Cheap Credit - Interest rates came down to | | | | generate a positive cash flow. In order to do this, you |
| unheard of levels making it easier to buy more assets | | | | should have already been prequalified by a lender so |
| with less money. | | | | that you know what down payment requirements you |
| (3) Overabundance of Credit - It started in the late | | | | will have and what your finance costs will be. Once |
| 1990s when Bill Clinton passed legislation freeing up | | | | you know what those cost are, you are ready to |
| credit to allow more people to buy homes - the | | | | evaluate the income and expenses. |
| sub-prime mortgage market was created. People that | | | | Evaluating the INCOME is fairly straightforward. You |
| really shouldn't have been buying homes in the first | | | | will want to compare the going rental rates in the area |
| place were not only buying homes, but purchasing | | | | for similar sized homes in fair to good condition and |
| larger properties than they could afford. As credit | | | | use a figure in the bottom ½ of the going rental |
| loosened and values started to increase, a run on | | | | rates to be conservative. |
| equity lines of credit and refinancing freed up the | | | | Analyzing EXPENSES is a bit trickier. There are a few |
| equity in people's homes and allowed them to spend | | | | items that you will need in order to verify costs and |
| 'invisible' equity in the consumer markets on durable | | | | come up with a total expense amount. These may be |
| goods and services. This created the economic boom | | | | broken down into the following: |
| that we all experienced in the early to mid-2000s. The | | | | Recurring Expenses |
| result: even homeowners that bought early in the | | | | Property management - Figure 8-10% of the gross |
| boom and saw their property values increase 50-100% | | | | rent will be paid as management fees on single family |
| over a 5-6 year period had little to no equity left in their | | | | homes. The more properties you have under |
| homes by the end of this appreciation cycle as they | | | | management, the better the fee you may be able to |
| leached it all out through equity lines of credit and other | | | | negotiate with a management company. |
| borrowing methods. | | | | Insurance - You will need to have enough insurance to |
| (4) Investor Stupidity - As values went up and loans | | | | cover the home and liability to cover accidents, having |
| became easier to attain, investors started buying | | | | tenants in the premises. Make sure you have |
| property with no money down and buying as many | | | | adequate coverage |
| properties as they could get loans for (see next point | | | | Taxes |
| below). It became an exercise in buy high and hope to | | | | HOA Fees - Many single Family Homes in Phoenix |
| sell higher. | | | | belong to a homeowner association where fees are |
| It got to the point that, in 2005, there were actually | | | | collected periodically for community maintenance. |
| busloads of investors that were driving around in town | | | | Please make sure to |
| stopping in new housing subdivisions and lining up to | | | | Utilities - usually paid for by the tenant on single family |
| buy new homes. Why did they concentrate on new | | | | residences, so you don't have to worry about this. |
| homes? Because they could purchase a home to be | | | | Check with you property manager for what is typical |
| built in the future, put little money down to secure it and | | | | in their area |
| watch the value of their property increase for 6-12 | | | | Legal/Accounting - many investors forget this one. |
| months without even owning it yet! Then they would | | | | Remember that you own and investment and need to |
| either flip it right away when it was completed or hold | | | | make appropriate plans to minimize your liability and |
| it in hopes of it appreciating even more. | | | | tax exposure. Please talk to legal and tax specialists |
| Builders were turning away buyers, holding lotteries and | | | | for more information. The more property you own, the |
| using other methods to hold back the swarm because | | | | less this items costs per property since you can |
| they couldn't build homes fast enough, even as they | | | | spread the cost over all your investments. |
| continued to raise prices on a monthly - sometimes | | | | Maintenance Costs - you may have to pay someone |
| even weekly basis! As a result, new homes were | | | | to maintain the exterior of the home One of the main |
| overbuilt in 2004, 2005 and 2006 by a wide margin due | | | | reasons to buy a home with no pool/spa and |
| to 'fake' demand since many of the buyers were | | | | low-maintenance desert-style landscaping. Once a |
| investors with no intention of ever living in the home! | | | | tenant is in, they are typically responsible for maintaining |
| This flawed philosophy worked for 2+ years at which | | | | these areas. |
| time the greatest fool theory became a reality. You | | | | VACANCY FACTOR - You will not always have a |
| know how it works...As you build a pyramid of fools, | | | | tenant in the property. You need to make allowance |
| there are less and less greater fools as you work | | | | for time between tenants. If you price your rent |
| your way to the top. When you finally reach the | | | | aggressively for the market, 1 month per year as |
| summit the greatest fool at the top looks around and | | | | vacancy should be more than adequate. |
| sees no-one dumber than himself to buy his property | | | | One-Time Costs |
| for more money and so, the whole structure comes | | | | These are costs you will incur in purchasing the |
| crashing to the ground. It took a while for owners of | | | | property. You may bundle this into the total investment |
| property who were trying to sell to realize that prices | | | | cost along with the down payment you intend to use. |
| were in decline, not going up in mid 2006 which | | | | They will include: |
| resulted in a massive number of listings coming on the | | | | Escrow fees and other closings costs |
| market with few takers. This is further explained | | | | Home Inspection |
| below under 'The Market Collapse'. | | | | Termite Inspection |
| (5) Lender & Investor Fraud - As the run-up in | | | | Other Inspection Fees (if applicable |
| values was occurring, lenders and investors started to | | | | Finance Charges (for the loan) |
| get greedy. Lenders began offering programs that | | | | You will be able to prepare an estimate for all these |
| made little or no sense for some homebuyers to get | | | | costs prior to putting in an offer on a property. |
| them into a home. Many times, putting a buyer into a | | | | Typically, you will have 10+ days after offer |
| home larger than they knew their client could afford | | | | acceptance to run all inspections and tighten up all your |
| with programs that their clients did not fully understand. | | | | figures to make sure your estimates were accurate. If |
| Credit was so loose and readily available during this | | | | you find something wrong with the home during this |
| time that many investors and homebuyers were | | | | time, you will usually have the ability to cancel the |
| fraudulently misreporting their income too high on | | | | contract and get back your earnest money. Speak |
| 'stated income', 'no-doc' loans and lenders were turning | | | | with your Real Estate Professional for more |
| the other cheek and underwriting the loans with no | | | | information about the procedure of placing an offer on |
| clear proof of the borrower's ability to repay. | | | | a property |
| The Market Collapse | | | | Emergency Fund |
| So why did the proverbial %#$ hit the fan? Greed and | | | | It's important to always have some extra money put |
| loose credit were the culprits and it culminated when | | | | on the side to cover emergency expenses, a tenant |
| investors and homebuyers ran out of money to | | | | that skips out or is delinquent on payments, repairs |
| purchase and overall economy began to slow down | | | | costs, etc. Always be prepared for the unexpected. |
| as people started running out of capital and credit. As | | | | Sample Analysis |
| the real estate market began to slow down, property | | | | Let's work through an example so you may see how |
| sellers remained steadfast in their belief that their home | | | | a typical investment might look on a single family home: |
| was worth more money than the current market value | | | | Our sample property is a single family home with 3 |
| as it had been in months past. But it wasn't. | | | | bedrooms, 2 baths and 1,400 square feet for $100,000. |
| From there, the first phase of the market collapse | | | | We will assume that you will need to put 30% down to |
| occurred. Overpriced properties for sale with no | | | | purchase this home. A home like this is fairly typical in |
| buyers. Property owners unrealistically priced their | | | | today's market and might have sold for $180,000 - |
| homes for sale too high and buyers began to pull off | | | | $200,000+ 3 years ago. |
| to the sidelines as they were unwilling to pay the | | | | Total Purchase Price $100,000 |
| exorbitant prices for homes. Listings began to pile up | | | | Down payment (@30%) $30,000 |
| and very few sales were occurring. Some owners | | | | Loan Amount $70,000 |
| started to realize what was happening and dropped | | | | Closing Costs |
| the price of their home to help it sell. As the market | | | | Down payment $30,000 |
| leveled off and began to slowly correct, phase two | | | | Escrow Fees $1,000 |
| began..... | | | | Finance Charges $1,500 |
| Investors that were counting on property appreciation | | | | Home Inspection $400 |
| soon realized that the end had occurred. They began | | | | Termite Inspection $100 |
| putting property up for sale en mass further straining | | | | Total Closing Costs $33,000 |
| the supply side of the market. Because all these | | | | Income |
| investors were buying property based solely on | | | | Monthly Rent $950 |
| appreciation and NOT cash flow, they soon realized | | | | Less Vacancy Factor (1 month) $950 |
| that they would be unable to hang onto their property | | | | Annual Income $10,450 |
| if they didn't sell them. Some tried to rent, but because | | | | Annual Expenses (est.) |
| they had paid so much for the homes, the properties | | | | Taxes $800 |
| were unable to cover the expenses. Some investors | | | | Insurance $400 |
| and homeowners hung on for longer than others, but | | | | Property Management (@9%) $940 |
| almost all of them eventually gave in to the realities of | | | | HOA fees ($50/month) $600 |
| declining property values. | | | | Maintenance/Repairs/Cleaning $450 |
| This was further compounded by the variety of | | | | Legal/Accounting $250 |
| 'flexible' mortgages that were available to homebuyers | | | | Total Annual Expenses $3,440 |
| and investors including shorter term, loans at lower | | | | NET OPERATING INCOME $7,010 |
| interest rates. Investors planned on short hold times so | | | | Annual Mortgage Payments (@ 7.5%) $5,874 |
| naturally obtained lower interest loans with shorter | | | | Positive Cash Flow $1,136 |
| terms as they planned to sell within 1-2 years. As the | | | | Return On Initial Investment (ROI) 3.4%return excludes |
| market declined and those property owners could not | | | | appreciation |
| sell, these loans became due and because property | | | | Condition Of Property |
| values were declining, they could not get new loans to | | | | There are 3 different types of properties you can look |
| cover the value of the old loans. Many more property | | | | at purchasing as an investment as it relates to |
| owners walked away for this reason and it continues | | | | condition. |
| today. | | | | Option A - Property In Good Condition & Ready |
| As the loans go into default due to non-payment, the | | | | To Rent |
| owner is left with 2 ways out - short sale or walk | | | | Option B - Property in fair condition but requiring |
| away. Many went the route of short sale to minimize | | | | cosmetic repair to make rentable. This is a property |
| the affect on their credit rating and those who could | | | | that might be bank-owned or otherwise vacant for a |
| not or would not go that route eventually walked | | | | while. May have been heavily used or poorly |
| away from their property and let the bank take the | | | | maintained by the previous owner. Work required is |
| property back. | | | | more cosmetic in nature and easy to estimate. Things |
| I have another article posted on this site detailing the | | | | like carpet cleaning or replacement, new appliances, |
| Pros and Cons to purchasing Short Sales and | | | | repainting, cleaning, landscape repair, drywall touch-up |
| Bank-owned Properties in Phoenix. | | | | Option C - Property in poor condition, requiring major |
| The market was soon flooded with distressed | | | | repair and/or replacement. I only recommend this |
| properties of all kinds. This forced home values down | | | | option for seasoned, experienced investors that have |
| further and faster as distressed properties are typically | | | | a background in home construction, repair and cost |
| aggressively priced at least 5-10% less than current | | | | analysis. While you may be able to purchase property |
| market value. This cycle has continued to force values | | | | well below current market values and create instant |
| down for months to the point where most submarkets | | | | equity by fixing them up, you can also lose your shirt if |
| in Metro Phoenix have fallen 25-50% in the past 2 | | | | you don't know what you are doing. |
| years. Some properties have fallen over 60% from | | | | If you are a beginner real estate investor, I suggest |
| their highs 2 years ago. | | | | you stick with option A until you get your feet wet and |
| This has led to further problems in our region. Due to | | | | a little more experience with repair and replacement |
| the extent of the downturn and the sheer number of | | | | costs. |
| vacant, distressed properties, Many properties are | | | | Be Pragmatic |
| being vandalized by outgoing owners and theft is | | | | Remember, it's an investment. Be a Vulcan. Don't |
| become much more widespread of vacant properties. | | | | exhibit emotions when dealing with buying a property |
| This is further compounding the downturn as | | | | or renting it to a tenant. The numbers have to make |
| properties in poor condition are even harder to sell and | | | | sense and the upside must be there. NEVER FALL IN |
| must be discounted that much more in order to find a | | | | LOVE WITH A HOME YOU'RE BUYING AS AN |
| willing purchaser. | | | | INVESTMENT. You will not be living in it. Think of it |
| When Will The Housing Market Hit Bottom? | | | | strictly as an income producing asset like a stock or |
| Good question. Here's the answer..... | | | | bond. Make sure tenants are properly screened and |
| I have no clue. In fact, no-one does. But that's' not the | | | | qualified. |
| most important thing. There is no way to know for | | | | Property Management |
| certain when the absolute bottom is reached. All you | | | | It is important to have quality local management to |
| can do is invest wisely NEAR the bottom. Purchase | | | | oversee your investment. Yes, it cost more money to |
| properties that produce positive cash flow (will be | | | | pay them, but they help maintain the value of your |
| explained later), and wait to ride the wave back up. | | | | asset and save you from those calls at 3 am about a |
| Why Now? | | | | plumbing leak. Factor them into the numbers when |
| There are several critical elements in evaluating the | | | | evaluating an investment and don't buy anything that |
| state of the residential real estate market and its | | | | doesn't positive cash flow without management. |
| proximity to turning the corner. Many of these criteria | | | | Why Not Commercial? |
| are now pointing to real estate values bottoming out. | | | | Commercial real estate like apartments, office, retail |
| Here are some of the statistics I have been watching | | | | and industrial make excellent investments - if |
| carefully which lead me to believe we are finding | | | | purchased at the right time. The consensus among |
| resistance that is creating a market bottom. | | | | leading real estate investment professionals is that this |
| (1) Housing affordability has shot through the roof | | | | segment of the market has not bottomed out and |
| (2) Residential Resales are on the rise | | | | likely will not for a while. The time to pick up distressed |
| (3) Homebuilding is at a 25 year low | | | | real estate investments in these asset categories may |
| (4) Applications for new mortgages are on the rise | | | | yet be 3-4 quarters away (from 4th quarter 2008). |
| The biggest concerns that still remain are: | | | | Why? Because as the economy fails and the |
| (1) The overall economy is weak and likely to get | | | | recession heads into full swing, many business |
| worse before it gets better | | | | eventually fail. This drives up vacancy rates and |
| (2) Credit is harder to obtain and larger down | | | | reduces asset performance while at the same time, |
| payments are now the norm when buying real estate | | | | reducing rental values as more space competes for |
| making it less available for more people | | | | limited tenants. Investors start demanding higher rates |
| (3) Still too many foreclosures and short sales coming | | | | of return and factor in higher vacancy rates into their |
| on the market from the frenzy of a few years ago. | | | | calculations of asset value driving the prices of |
| Affordable Housing Is Back! | | | | property down. It usually takes some time for property |
| One of the best indicators on how attractive a specific | | | | owners to catch on to this market trend and reduce |
| real estate market is for homeownership is the | | | | their asking prices to falling market values which |
| affordability index. This is a measure of how | | | | further puts strain on values. This is the same scenario |
| affordable homes in a particular area are relative to | | | | that has happened in the residential property arena in |
| wages and incomes. A number of 65-70 shows | | | | mid-to-late 2006 and into 2007. I suspect that there will |
| considerable value and favorable affordability for a | | | | be many commercial properties that enter default and |
| large percentage of the population. As you can see, | | | | revert back to the lenders creating opportunities for |
| one of the driving forces of Metro Phoenix growth has | | | | seasoned investors to purchase commercial real |
| always been housing affordability. In the speculation | | | | estate assets for very attractive values - but the time |
| frenzy in the mid-2000s, that affordability plummeted to | | | | has not yet arrived. Patience is warranted in this area. |
| numbers never seen before. As prices have fallen, you | | | | Copyright Notice |
| can see the affordability coming back to the point | | | | All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be |
| where now, we are above our historical average. | | | | reproduced or transmitted in whole or in part, in any |
| *graph not available on this site* | | | | form or by any means electronic or mechanical. Any |
| Residential Resales are Picking up Steam! | | | | unauthorized use, reproduction or distribution is strictly |
| As you can see from the following chart (unavailable | | | | prohibited. |
| on this site), sales activity is on the rise, although over | | | | Legal Notice |
| 40% of the sales are currently lender-owned | | | | While attempts have been made to verify information |
| properties. This shows that we are starting to hit a | | | | provided in this publication, neither the author nor the |
| resistance at the bottom as people are starting to | | | | publisher assumes any responsibilities for errors, |
| grab the deals at the bottom of the market. If this | | | | omissions, or contradictory information contained in this |
| trend continues, it could signal the slow-down in price | | | | document. |
| declines and near-term stabilization of our home | | | | This document is not intended as legal, investment or |
| values. | | | | tax advice. The reader of this document assumes all |
| For these reasons, while I believe we are near the | | | | responsibility for the use of these materials and |
| bottom, I think it will be a few years before we see a | | | | information and is urged to do their own investigation |
| marked improvement in our area where values begin | | | | prior to purchasing and/or investing in real estate of |
| to rise again. Will it happen? Absolutely! As I have | | | | any kind. Celestial Homes Ltd, Prudential Arizona |
| attempted to explain above, the overall Metro Phoenix | | | | Properties and the author assumes no responsibility or |
| Market is very strong for numerous reasons and is | | | | liability whatsoever on behalf of any reader of these |
| poised to be a major growth region again - and not | | | | materials. |
| too long into the future, either. | | | | © 2008 Celestial Homes Ltd. |
| So why not wait until things start turning around? Well, | | | | |