| U.S. home ownership is declining and with foreclosures | | | | economic effects are likely the following. Vacation |
| in the pipeline racing forward, this trend will accelerate | | | | housing values will fall sharply and the immediate |
| in the coming months. This more precipitous drop | | | | impact will be a negative impact on all home values. |
| should slow to a stead trend of declining ownership for | | | | After this effect fades, with homeowners / buyers |
| the remainder of the decade and possibly beyond. | | | | having no incentive to purchase a second home, |
| This trend is going to effect homeownership benefits | | | | primary home values basic value will rise and related |
| and regulations. | | | | industries will gain long term momentum because |
| When the nation sees changes in demographic lines | | | | consumers will be prone to invest more in their primary |
| political fallout is not far behind. In this case, fewer | | | | homes. In effect, the cities and communities where |
| home owners means less support for the home | | | | these consumers live will benefit. |
| interest write off. There are proposal to reduce the | | | | For investors, after the vacation home areas suffer |
| write off to as low as $417,000 or thereabouts. I | | | | the ill effects of this event. Values will settle at a |
| don't think this is likely to prevail. In my estimation, the | | | | lower level. Investors will become the principal |
| first home mortgage is likely safe. However, if not, | | | | owners. Moreover, access to these areas will be |
| the worst case is limiting the write off to $750,000. | | | | enhanced by the lower cost point investor business |
| On the other hand the write off for second homes is | | | | driven goals. So, while values will fall vacation / get |
| at risk and is likely to become a victim of this crisis | | | | away attraction will not be impacted. Investors |
| eventually. While many won't be happy, this is likely | | | | placing capital in these areas should benefit from solid |
| a positive event for first home values and for most | | | | sustained demand for the product. |
| consumers. The reason this is the case is the | | | | |