Romania Commercial Banking Report Q2 2010

The political instability at the end of 2009 has resolved,as president improves the outlook. It has also led to
with a marginal win by President Traian Basescuexpectations of much-needed structural reforms,
declared in December. During the electoral turbulence,including the implementation of IMF-prescribed austerity
which involved fraud allegations, policymaking wasmeasures.
derailed and Romania lost out on a EUR1.5bnTotal property investment revenue in H209 remained
disbursement from the International Monetary Fundvery low, and fell 25% y-o-y, according to CB Richard
(IMF).Ellis (CBRE). However, this was an improvement on
Although the economy is still in deep recession, it hasH109.
passed the worst, with GDP data for Q309 showing aIn the office market, vacancy rates have continued to
reduction in the pace of decline. The unemploymentincrease, and are expected to grow over H109.
rate remains high, and is forecast to reach a peak ofTake-up was very poor down in 2009 but began
8.5% in 2010. High unemployment weakens consumerincreasing in Q409. This is expected to keep increasing
spending, lowers consumer confidence and will place athroughout this year.
check on broader economic growth during theThe retail sector is still flat. Some national retail chains
expected recovery. The recovery is forecast to occurhave faced significant financial difficulties. Store
in 2010 but it will be to be weak and fragile.openings have decreased, and there are high vacancy
Corruption remains a major and longstanding problem.rates for shopping centres and, especially, for onstreet
Romania ranked 71 out of 180 surveyed countries inshops. In the industrial sector, there has been a
the 2009 Transparency International Corruptionslowdown, but this appears to have bottomed in late-
Perceptions Index, placing it equal last among the 302009. The industrial sector is still expected to be flat in
EU countries surveyed. However, Basescu's new term2010.